Aucas vs Independiente del Valle preview and prediction
The match
Aucas host Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro on Thursday 16 July, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda. Aucas are 5th with 54 points from 36 games, while Independiente del Valle sit 1st on 84 points. A gap of 30 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Aucas's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Mushuc Runa SC 4–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Aucas and 1.5 for Independiente del Valle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aucas 32%, draw 22%, Independiente del Valle 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Aucas 1–1 Independiente del Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aucas32%fair 3.16 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Independiente del Valle47%fair 2.14 · @2.26
2.62Expected goals
1.15Aucas xG
1.47Independiente del Valle xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Aucas 1.1 – 1.5 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
47%
2.14
2.26 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
26%
3.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.33
–
Form
Aucas – last 6
WWDWWL
12 Jul
@ Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
8 Jul
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–0
W
31 May
@ Mushuc Runa SC
0–0
D
26 May
vs Manta FC
3–1
W
21 May
@ San Antonio
3–0
W
17 May
@ Barcelona SC
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWWWL
11 Jul
@ Mushuc Runa SC
4–1
W
8 Jul
@ Santo Domingo
2–0
W
4 Jul
vs Manta FC
4–0
W
31 May
@ Guayaquil City FC
4–2
W
27 May
vs Rosario Central
1–0
W
23 May
vs Libertad
2–3
L
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aucas and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Aucas have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independiente del Valle 47%.
How many goals will there be in Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Aucas 1–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
