Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Independiente del Valle or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓58% · @1.83
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.66
Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle preview and prediction
The match
Mushuc Runa SC host Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 20:10 (WAT) at Estadio Bellavista. Mushuc Runa SC are 12th with 43 points from 36 games, while Independiente del Valle sit 1st on 84 points. A gap of 41 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Mushuc Runa SC's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Universidad Catolica 3–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Santo Domingo 2–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.9 for Mushuc Runa SC and 1.8 for Independiente del Valle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mushuc Runa SC 18%, draw 24%, Independiente del Valle 58%.
Safer route: Independiente del Valle or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Independiente del Valle to win at 1.83 – 58% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Independiente del Valle or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mushuc Runa SC 0–1 Independiente del Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mushuc Runa SC18%fair 5.48 · @3.90
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.50
Independiente del Valle58%fair 1.72 · @1.83
2.77Expected goals
0.93Mushuc Runa SC xG
1.83Independiente del Valle xG
53%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–36%
0–06%
From our goals model: Mushuc Runa SC 0.9 – 1.8 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
58%
1.72
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.30
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.66
–
Form
Mushuc Runa SC – last 6
WLDLLL
6 Jul
@ Universidad Catolica
3–2
W
3 Jun
@ Gualaceo SC
0–1
L
31 May
vs Aucas
0–0
D
17 May
@ Leones del Norte
1–3
L
12 May
vs LDU de Quito
1–3
L
23 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWWLW
8 Jul
@ Santo Domingo
2–0
W
4 Jul
vs Manta FC
4–0
W
31 May
@ Guayaquil City FC
4–2
W
27 May
vs Rosario Central
1–0
W
23 May
vs Libertad
2–3
L
20 May
vs Libertad Asuncion
4–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mushuc Runa SC and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Mushuc Runa SC have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente del Valle 58%.
How many goals will there be in Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Mushuc Runa SC 0–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 20:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Bellavista.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
