Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 3.65 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUniversidad Catolica to win ✗44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.14
Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Leones del Norte take on Universidad Catolica on Friday 10 July, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. Leones del Norte are 9th with 47 points from 36 games, while Universidad Catolica sit 3rd on 54 points.
Form guide
Leones del Norte's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Libertad 3–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Universidad Catolica's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Mushuc Runa SC 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Leones del Norte arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Leones del Norte and 1.4 for Universidad Catolica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones del Norte 31%, draw 24%, Universidad Catolica 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Leones del Norte to win at 3.65 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Leones del Norte 1–1 Universidad Catolica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones del Norte31%fair 3.19 · @3.65
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.35
Universidad Catolica44%fair 2.26 · @2.00
2.59Expected goals
1.14Leones del Norte xG
1.45Universidad Catolica xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.1 – 1.4 Universidad Catolica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universidad Catolica to win✗
44%
2.26
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universidad Catolica / FT Universidad Catolica✗
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.14
–
Form
Leones del Norte – last 6
WDWLWL
4 Jul
@ Libertad
3–1
W
1 Jun
vs Macara
1–1
D
30 May
@ Huaquillas
1–0
W
24 May
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
17 May
vs Mushuc Runa SC
3–1
W
9 May
@ Orense SC
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Universidad Catolica – last 6
LLWLLL
6 Jul
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–3
L
1 Jun
@ Emelec
0–1
L
29 May
@ El Nacional
4–1
W
13 May
vs Independiente del Valle
0–3
L
1 May
vs Independiente del Valle
2–3
L
27 Apr
@ Manta FC
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Universidad Catolica.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Universidad Catolica 44%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–1 Universidad Catolica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica?
Leones del Norte vs Universidad Catolica (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 10 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
