Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLDU de Quito to win ✗66% · @1.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.24
LDU de Quito vs Libertad preview and prediction
The match
LDU de Quito host Libertad in the Liga Pro on Sunday 12 July, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado. LDU de Quito are 4th with 54 points from 36 games, while Libertad sit 7th on 51 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
LDU de Quito's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Ind. Juniors 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Libertad's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Leones del Norte 1–3 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
LDU de Quito arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Libertad 2–1 LDU de Quito.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for LDU de Quito and 0.7 for Libertad. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: LDU de Quito 66%, draw 16%, Libertad 17%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 53% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.48, above our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it. Predicted score: LDU de Quito 1–0 Libertad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
LDU de Quito66%fair 1.51 · @1.30
Draw16%fair 6.14 · @5.10
Libertad17%fair 5.78 · @9.70
2.59Expected goals
1.85LDU de Quito xG
0.75Libertad xG
53%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: LDU de Quito 1.8 – 0.7 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Libertad 17%.
How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 1–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
LDU de Quito vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
