Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle preview and prediction
The match
Independiente del Valle travel to Olimpico Atahualpa in the Liga Pro on Friday 1 May (22:30 WAT) to face Universidad Catolica. Universidad Catolica are 3rd with 54 points from 36 games, while Independiente del Valle sit 1st on 84 points. A gap of 30 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Universidad Catolica's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Manta FC 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Libertad Asuncion 3–2 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Universidad Catolica and 1.2 for Independiente del Valle. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Universidad Catolica 42%, draw 24%, Independiente del Valle 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Universidad Catolica 1–1 Independiente del Valle. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Universidad Catolica42%fair 2.39 · @2.48
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Independiente del Valle34%fair 2.92 · @2.75
2.58Expected goals
1.37Universidad Catolica xG
1.21Independiente del Valle xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Universidad Catolica 1.4 – 1.2 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universidad Catolica to win✗
42%
2.39
2.48
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universidad Catolica / FT Universidad Catolica✗
24%
4.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.60
–
Form
Universidad Catolica – last 6
LWDWDL
27 Apr
@ Manta FC
0–1
L
24 Apr
vs Macara
4–0
W
9 Apr
vs Emelec
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ LDU de Quito
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Juventud
3–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWDLW
28 Apr
@ Libertad Asuncion
3–2
W
22 Apr
@ Delfin SC
1–0
W
16 Apr
vs UCV
3–1
W
9 Apr
@ Rosario Central
0–0
D
20 Mar
@ Emelec
0–2
L
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Universidad Catolica and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Universidad Catolica have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente del Valle 34%.
How many goals will there be in Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Universidad Catolica 1–1 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle?
Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Olimpico Atahualpa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
