Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Guayaquil City FC to win @ 3.70 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLibertad to win ✗47% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.33
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC preview and prediction
The match
Guayaquil City FC travel to Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in the Liga Pro on Tuesday 21 April (23:00 WAT) to face Libertad. Libertad are 7th with 51 points from 36 games, while Guayaquil City FC sit 8th on 48 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Libertad's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Orense SC 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Guayaquil City FC's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Emelec 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Libertad and 1.0 for Guayaquil City FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Libertad 47%, draw 22%, Guayaquil City FC 31%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Guayaquil City FC to win at 3.70 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad47%fair 2.13 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.30
Guayaquil City FC31%fair 3.20 · @3.70
2.23Expected goals
1.27Libertad xG
0.96Guayaquil City FC xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.3 – 1.0 Guayaquil City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Libertad to win✗
47%
2.13
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Libertad / FT Libertad✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.33
–
Form
Libertad – last 6
LDDLWL
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
2–1
W
5 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Guayaquil City FC – last 6
WDWDLL
18 Apr
@ Emelec
3–1
W
23 Mar
vs Leones del Norte
0–0
D
18 Mar
@ Manta FC
1–0
W
16 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
7 Mar
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
23 Feb
@ Independiente del Valle
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and Guayaquil City FC.
What is the prediction for Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
On our numbers Libertad have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Guayaquil City FC 31%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC?
Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
