Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: LDU de Quito to win @ 1.84 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLDU de Quito to win ✗58% · @1.84
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.71
LDU de Quito vs Aucas preview and prediction
The match
Aucas travel to Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in the Liga Pro on Thursday 23 April (02:00 WAT) to face LDU de Quito. LDU de Quito are 4th with 54 points from 36 games, while Aucas sit 5th on 54 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
LDU de Quito's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Mirassol 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aucas's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Leones del Norte 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for LDU de Quito and 0.8 for Aucas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: LDU de Quito 58%, draw 22%, Aucas 20%.
Safer route: LDU de Quito or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.73.
Value angle: LDU de Quito to win at 1.84 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was LDU de Quito or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: LDU de Quito 1–0 Aucas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
LDU de Quito58%fair 1.73 · @1.84
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.55
Aucas20%fair 4.89 · @4.10
2.35Expected goals
1.57LDU de Quito xG
0.78Aucas xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–112%
2–012%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: LDU de Quito 1.6 – 0.8 Aucas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
LDU de Quito to win✗
58%
1.73
1.84 ▲
Double chance
LDU de Quito or draw✓
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT LDU de Quito / FT LDU de Quito✗
34%
2.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.71
–
Form
LDU de Quito – last 6
WLWLWW
15 Apr
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
11 Apr
@ Delfin SC
0–1
L
8 Apr
@ Always Ready
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Leones del Norte
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Aucas – last 6
WWWWLL
17 Apr
@ Leones del Norte
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Emelec
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Macara
1–0
W
24 Mar
vs Orense SC
3–2
W
19 Mar
vs Tecnico Universitario
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between LDU de Quito and Aucas.
Our pick is LDU de Quito or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Aucas?
On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aucas 20%.
How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Aucas?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Aucas?
Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 1–0 Aucas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is LDU de Quito vs Aucas?
LDU de Quito vs Aucas (Liga Pro) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
