Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Aucas to win @ 2.60 – our chance 45% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAucas to win ✓45% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓15% · fair 6.82
Leones del Norte vs Aucas preview and prediction
The match
Aucas travel to Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in the Liga Pro on Friday 17 April (23:00 WAT) to face Leones del Norte. Leones del Norte are 9th with 47 points from 36 games, while Aucas sit 5th on 54 points.
Form guide
Leones del Norte's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Barcelona SC 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aucas's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Emelec 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aucas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Leones del Norte and 1.2 for Aucas. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones del Norte 31%, draw 23%, Aucas 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Aucas to win at 2.60 – 45% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Leones del Norte 0–1 Aucas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones del Norte31%fair 3.19 · @2.78
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05
Aucas45%fair 2.21 · @2.60
2.08Expected goals
0.91Leones del Norte xG
1.18Aucas xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 0.9 – 1.2 Aucas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aucas to win✓
45%
2.21
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.60
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aucas / FT Aucas✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
15%
6.82
–
Form
Leones del Norte – last 6
LWDLDD
11 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Mar
@ Guayaquil City FC
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs LDU de Quito
0–2
L
14 Mar
@ Deportivo Cuenca
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Macara
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Aucas – last 5
WWWLL
13 Apr
vs Emelec
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Macara
1–0
W
24 Mar
vs Orense SC
3–2
W
19 Mar
vs Tecnico Universitario
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Aucas.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Aucas 45%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 0–1 Aucas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Aucas?
Leones del Norte vs Aucas (Liga Pro) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
