Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Aucas to win @ 1.90 – our chance 64% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAucas to win ✓64% · @1.90
Double chanceAucas or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.28
Aucas vs Emelec preview and prediction
The match
Aucas host Emelec in the Liga Pro on Monday 13 April, with kick-off at 00:10 (WAT) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda. Aucas are 5th with 54 points from 36 games, while Emelec sit 10th on 45 points.
Form guide
Aucas's last 4: WWLL Most recently they beat Macara 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Emelec's last 5: DLLWD Most recently they drew with Universidad Catolica 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Aucas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Aucas and 0.6 for Emelec. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aucas 64%, draw 23%, Emelec 14%.
Safer route: Aucas or draw (86%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Aucas to win at 1.90 – 64% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Aucas or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Aucas 1–0 Emelec. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aucas64%fair 1.56 · @1.90
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.50
Emelec14%fair 7.38 · @3.85
2.39Expected goals
1.74Aucas xG
0.65Emelec xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Aucas 1.7 – 0.6 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aucas to win✓
64%
1.56
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Aucas or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.33
Half-time result
Aucas ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aucas / FT Aucas✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.28
–
Form
Aucas – last 4
WWLL
6 Apr
@ Macara
1–0
W
24 Mar
vs Orense SC
3–2
W
19 Mar
vs Tecnico Universitario
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Emelec – last 5
DLLWD
9 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–2
L
23 Mar
@ Mushuc Runa SC
0–2
L
20 Mar
vs Independiente del Valle
2–0
W
1 Mar
vs Delfin SC
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aucas and Emelec.
Our pick is Aucas or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Aucas vs Emelec?
On our numbers Aucas have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Emelec 14%.
How many goals will there be in Aucas vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aucas vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Aucas 1–0 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Aucas vs Emelec?
Aucas vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 00:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
