Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.30
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win68% · @1.47
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw90% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score55% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–021% · fair 4.82
Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro sees Independiente del Valle take on Mushuc Runa SC on Saturday 7 March, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil. Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84 points from 35 games, while Mushuc Runa SC sit 12th on 43 points. A gap of 41 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Independiente del Valle and 0.4 for Mushuc Runa SC. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente del Valle 68%, draw 22%, Mushuc Runa SC 10%.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 – 59% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independiente del Valle 1–0 Mushuc Runa SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente del Valle68%fair 1.48 · @1.47
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @4.10
Mushuc Runa SC10%fair 9.83 · @6.80
2.06Expected goals
1.62Independiente del Valle xG
0.44Mushuc Runa SC xG
45%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–017%
0–013%
3–09%
1–19%
2–17%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 1.6 – 0.4 Mushuc Runa SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win
68%
1.48
1.47
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw
90%
1.11
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
55%
1.82
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.70
1.83 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
21%
4.82
–
Form
Independiente del Valle – last 2
WW
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Mushuc Runa SC
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and Mushuc Runa SC.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mushuc Runa SC 10%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 1–0 Mushuc Runa SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
