Leones del Norte vs Libertad prediction & analysis
74%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.48
8/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Libertad to win @ 3.70 – our chance 40% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +47%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultLibertad to win40% · @3.70
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score57% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals74% · @1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–119% · fair 5.37
Leones del Norte vs Libertad preview and prediction
The match
Leones del Norte host Libertad in the Liga Pro on Saturday 28 February, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. Leones del Norte are 9th with 47 points from 36 games, while Libertad sit 7th on 51 points.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.3 goals: 0.6 for Leones del Norte and 0.7 for Libertad. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leones del Norte 35%, draw 25%, Libertad 40%.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Libertad to win at 3.70 – 40% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.48, above our fair price of 1.34, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Leones del Norte 0–0 Libertad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones del Norte35%fair 2.86 · @2.12
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.05
Libertad40%fair 2.53 · @3.70
1.32Expected goals
0.62Leones del Norte xG
0.70Libertad xG
43%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–027%
0–119%
1–017%
1–112%
0–27%
2–05%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 0.6 – 0.7 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Libertad to win
40%
2.53
3.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
57%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals
50%
1.99
2.45 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
74%
1.34
1.48 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
89%
1.13
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time
61%
1.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
19%
5.37
–
Form
Leones del Norte – last 1
D
22 Feb
@ Macara
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 1
W
24 Feb
vs Manta FC
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Libertad.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Libertad 40%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
We expect about 1.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 0–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.3 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Libertad?
Leones del Norte vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
