Value bet: Salcedo to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMoca to win ✗44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.37
Moca vs Salcedo preview and prediction
The match
Salcedo travel to face Moca in the Liga Mayor on Sunday 15 February (23:00 WAT). Moca are 4th with 20 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Salcedo sit 1st on 35 points (top of the table). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Moca and 1.2 for Salcedo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Moca 44%, draw 22%, Salcedo 34%.
Value angle: Salcedo to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 54% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Moca 1–1 Salcedo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Moca44%fair 2.25 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.10
Salcedo34%fair 2.98 · @3.20
2.58Expected goals
1.40Moca xG
1.17Salcedo xG
48%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–07%
From our goals model: Moca 1.4 – 1.2 Salcedo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Moca to win✗
44%
2.25
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Moca / FT Moca✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.37
–
Form
Moca
No recent results on record.
Salcedo
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moca and Salcedo.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Moca vs Salcedo?
On our numbers Moca have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Salcedo 34%.
How many goals will there be in Moca vs Salcedo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moca vs Salcedo?
Our predicted score is Moca 1–1 Salcedo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Moca vs Salcedo?
Moca vs Salcedo (Liga Mayor) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
