The League Cup sees Arsenal take on Manchester City on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Wembley Stadium.
Form guide
Arsenal's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Manchester City's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Real Madrid 1–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Arsenal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Arsenal and 1.2 for Manchester City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arsenal 43%, draw 23%, Manchester City 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arsenal43%fair 2.33 · @2.35
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05
Manchester City34%fair 2.98 · @3.15
2.63Expected goals
1.42Arsenal xG
1.22Manchester City xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Arsenal 1.4 – 1.2 Manchester City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win✗
43%
2.33
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.39
–
Form
Arsenal – last 6
WDWWWW
17 Mar
vs Bayer Leverkusen
2–0
W
11 Mar
@ Bayer Leverkusen
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ Mansfield Town
2–1
W
4 Mar
@ Brighton
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Tottenham
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Manchester City – last 3
LLD
17 Mar
vs Real Madrid
1–2
L
11 Mar
@ Real Madrid
0–3
L
4 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal and Manchester City.
What is the prediction for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
On our numbers Arsenal have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Manchester City 34%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Our predicted score is Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal vs Manchester City (League Cup) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Wembley Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
