Value bet: Diyala to win @ 3.80 – our chance 29% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl-Karma to win46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score53% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals68% · fair 1.46
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–116% · fair 6.29
Diyala vs Al-Karma preview and prediction
The match
Al-Karma travel to face Diyala in the Iraqi League on Saturday 14 February (15:30 WAT). Diyala are 12th with 14 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Al-Karma sit 1st on 30 points (top of the table). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.8 for Diyala and 1.1 for Al-Karma. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Diyala 29%, draw 25%, Al-Karma 46%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Diyala to win at 3.80 – 29% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Diyala 0–1 Al-Karma. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Diyala29%fair 3.41 · @3.80
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @2.62
Al-Karma46%fair 2.20 · @2.05
1.97Expected goals
0.83Diyala xG
1.14Al-Karma xG
47%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Diyala 0.8 – 1.1 Al-Karma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al-Karma to win
46%
2.20
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.34
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
53%
1.89
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
59%
1.71
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al-Karma / FT Al-Karma
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
16%
6.29
–
Form
Diyala
No recent results on record.
Al-Karma
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Diyala and Al-Karma.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Diyala vs Al-Karma?
On our numbers Diyala have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Al-Karma 46%.
How many goals will there be in Diyala vs Al-Karma?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Diyala vs Al-Karma?
Our predicted score is Diyala 0–1 Al-Karma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Diyala vs Al-Karma?
Diyala vs Al-Karma (Iraqi League) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Al-Qasim1
Al Najaf