Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.29Odds
2
Value bet: Neftchi to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNeftchi to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceNeftchi or draw ✓83% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Lokomotiv vs Neftchi preview and prediction
The match
Lokomotiv host Neftchi in the Super League on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Lokomotiv Stadium. Lokomotiv are 6th with 43 points from 27 games (in the top half), while Neftchi sit 1st on 61 points (top of the table). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lokomotiv's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Bunyodkor 1–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Neftchi's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished Neftchi 3–1 Lokomotiv.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.1 for Lokomotiv and 2.0 for Neftchi. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Neftchi to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lokomotiv 1–2 Neftchi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lokomotiv17%fair 5.87 · @3.30
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.20
Neftchi57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
3.07Expected goals
1.06Lokomotiv xG
2.01Neftchi xG
59%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–110%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv 1.1 – 2.0 Neftchi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Neftchi or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Lokomotiv vs Neftchi?
On our numbers Lokomotiv have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Neftchi 57%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv vs Neftchi?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv vs Neftchi?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv 1–2 Neftchi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv vs Neftchi?
Lokomotiv vs Neftchi (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Lokomotiv Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
