Super League · Uzbekistan · Pakhtakor Central StadiumPakhtakor vs Surkhon prediction & analysis
Pakhtakor to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.44 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Pakhtakor 2.0 – 0.6 Surkhon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Pakhtakor are clear favourites at home with a 70% chance of winning, against 8% for Surkhon.
Pakhtakor have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.7 per game. Surkhon have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. Pakhtakor come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (2.0 for Pakhtakor, 0.6 for Surkhon). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (15%), 1–0 (15%), 3–0 (10%).
Our pick is Pakhtakor to win at a 70% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.44.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Pakhtakor to win ✗ | 70% | 1.44 | 1.25 |
| Double chance | Pakhtakor or draw ✓ | 92% | 1.09 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Half-time result | Pakhtakor ahead at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Pakhtakor / FT Pakhtakor ✗ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.71 | – |
Form
Pakhtakor – last 6
| 16 Aug | @ Nasaf | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Aug | vs Al Hussein | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Aug | vs Buxoro | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Aug | @ Andijan | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Jul | @ Bunyodkor | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Jul | vs Xorazm | 2–1 | W |
Surkhon – last 6
| 13 Aug | vs Sogdiana | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Aug | vs Navbahor | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | @ Kokand-1912 | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Jul | @ Xorazm | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Jul | vs Dinamo Samarqand | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Jul | @ Andijan | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pakhtakor and Surkhon.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Neftchi | 26 | +38 | 61 |
| 2 |  Pakhtakor | 27 | +22 | 59 |
| 3 |  Navbahor | 27 | +21 | 55 |
| 4 |  Nasaf | 27 | +15 | 45 |
| 5 |  Olmaliq | 27 | +4 | 45 |
| 6 |  Lokomotiv | 27 | +10 | 43 |
| 7 |  Buxoro | 27 | +4 | 42 |
| 8 |  Dinamo Samarqand | 27 | +2 | 37 |
| 9 |  Qizilqum | 27 | -7 | 35 |
| 10 |  Surkhon | 27 | -9 | 31 |
| 11 |  Andijan | 27 | -6 | 31 |
| 12 |  Sogdiana | 27 | -9 | 30 |
| 13 |  Xorazm | 27 | -15 | 26 |
| 14 |  Bunyodkor | 26 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 |  Kokand-1912 | 27 | -13 | 24 |
| 16 |  Mash'al | 27 | -41 | 5 |
More Super League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Pakhtakor vs Surkhon?
Our pick is Pakhtakor to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Surkhon?
On our numbers Pakhtakor have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Surkhon 8%.
How many goals will there be in Pakhtakor vs Surkhon?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Pakhtakor vs Surkhon?
Pakhtakor vs Surkhon (Super League) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Pakhtakor Central Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.