Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Lokomotiv to win @ 1.75 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv to win ✓63% · @1.75
Double chanceLokomotiv or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.29
Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana preview and prediction
The match
Lokomotiv host Sogdiana in the Super League on Monday 27 July, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Lokomotiv Stadium. Lokomotiv are 6th with 43 points from 27 games (in the top half), while Sogdiana sit 12th on 30 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lokomotiv's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Andijan 3–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Sogdiana's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Neftchi 1–5 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.3 for Lokomotiv and 1.1 for Sogdiana. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Lokomotiv to win at 1.75 – 63% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lokomotiv or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lokomotiv 2–1 Sogdiana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lokomotiv63%fair 1.58 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.25
Sogdiana14%fair 7.15 · @4.00
3.38Expected goals
2.31Lokomotiv xG
1.07Sogdiana xG
61%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv 2.3 – 1.1 Sogdiana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv to win✓
63%
1.58
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Lokomotiv or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Lokomotiv ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv / FT Lokomotiv✗
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.29
–
Form
Lokomotiv – last 6
DDWLWL
22 Jul
vs Andijan
3–3
D
17 Jul
@ Pakhtakor
1–1
D
4 May
vs Qizilqum
1–0
W
27 Apr
@ Olmaliq
1–2
L
23 Apr
@ Nasaf
3–2
W
17 Apr
vs Navbahor
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sogdiana – last 6
LWWDLW
21 Jul
vs Neftchi
1–5
L
16 Jul
vs Xorazm
2–0
W
28 Apr
vs Surkhon
5–2
W
23 Apr
@ Navbahor
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Bunyodkor
2–3
L
13 Apr
@ Qizilqum
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv and Sogdiana.
Our pick is Lokomotiv or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana?
On our numbers Lokomotiv have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sogdiana 14%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv 2–1 Sogdiana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana?
Lokomotiv vs Sogdiana (Super League) kicks off on Monday 27 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Lokomotiv Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
