Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✓75% · @1.20
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓93% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗14% · fair 7.38
Grobiņa vs Riga preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees Grobiņa take on Riga on Monday 26 October, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Grobina Stadium. Grobiņa are 8th with 29 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Riga sit 2nd on 83 points (in the top four). A gap of 54 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Grobiņa's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat Ogre United 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Riga's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Pafos 1–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 August 2026, finished Riga 4–0 Grobiņa. Across their last 2 meetings Grobiņa have won 0, Riga 2, with 0 draws and 3.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 0.7 for Grobiņa and 2.4 for Riga. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Grobiņa 7%, draw 18%, Riga 75%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 55% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Riga to win – a 75% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Grobiņa 0–2 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Grobiņa7%fair 14.56 · @11.00
Draw18%fair 5.44 · @5.80
Riga75%fair 1.34 · @1.20
3.06Expected goals
0.66Grobiņa xG
2.40Riga xG
55%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–214%
0–111%
0–311%
1–29%
1–17%
1–37%
From our goals model: Grobiņa 0.7 – 2.4 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Riga to win with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Grobiņa vs Riga?
On our numbers Grobiņa have a 7% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Riga 75%.
How many goals will there be in Grobiņa vs Riga?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grobiņa vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Grobiņa 0–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Grobiņa vs Riga?
Grobiņa vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Monday 26 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Grobina Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
