Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗68% · @1.44
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.83
FK Liepaja vs Tukums preview and prediction
The match
FK Liepaja host Tukums in the Virsliga on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Daugava Stadium. FK Liepaja are 5th with 51 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Tukums sit 9th on 25 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FK Liepaja's last 5: WLDDD Most recently they beat FS Jelgava 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tukums's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
FK Liepaja arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 August 2026, finished Tukums 2–1 FK Liepaja. Across their last 3 meetings FK Liepaja have won 1, Tukums 1, with 1 draw and 3.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for FK Liepaja and 0.9 for Tukums. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: FK Liepaja 68%, draw 19%, Tukums 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FK Liepaja to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: FK Liepaja 2–0 Tukums. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FK Liepaja68%fair 1.48 · @1.44
Draw19%fair 5.36 · @4.20
Tukums14%fair 7.33 · @5.50
3.05Expected goals
2.19FK Liepaja xG
0.86Tukums xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: FK Liepaja 2.2 – 0.9 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is FK Liepaja to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
On our numbers FK Liepaja have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tukums 14%.
How many goals will there be in FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is FK Liepaja 2–0 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
FK Liepaja vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Daugava Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
