Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Grobiņa to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGrobiņa to win ✓62% · @1.80
Double chanceGrobiņa or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.94
Grobiņa vs Ogre United preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees Grobiņa take on Ogre United on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Grobiņa are 8th with 29 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Ogre United sit 10th on 19 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Grobiņa's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Super Nova 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Ogre United's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to BFC Daugavpils 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 July 2026, finished Grobiņa 2–2 Ogre United. Across their last 3 meetings Grobiņa have won 0, Ogre United 0, with 3 draws and 2.7 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Grobiņa and 0.9 for Ogre United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Grobiņa 62%, draw 23%, Ogre United 15%.
Safer route: Grobiņa or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Grobiņa to win at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Grobiņa or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Grobiņa 2–0 Ogre United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Grobiņa62%fair 1.60 · @1.80
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.40
Ogre United15%fair 6.87 · @3.80
2.89Expected goals
2.01Grobiņa xG
0.88Ogre United xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Grobiņa 2.0 – 0.9 Ogre United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Grobiņa vs Ogre United?
Our pick is Grobiņa or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Grobiņa vs Ogre United?
On our numbers Grobiņa have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ogre United 15%.
How many goals will there be in Grobiņa vs Ogre United?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grobiņa vs Ogre United?
Our predicted score is Grobiņa 2–0 Ogre United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Grobiņa vs Ogre United?
Grobiņa vs Ogre United (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
