Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✓64% · @1.75
Double chanceBFC Daugavpils or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.73
BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava preview and prediction
The match
BFC Daugavpils host FS Jelgava in the Virsliga on Saturday 1 August, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadions Celtnieks. BFC Daugavpils are 4th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top four), while FS Jelgava sit 7th on 35 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Auda 0–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
FS Jelgava's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to FK Liepaja 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 May 2026, finished FS Jelgava 1–1 BFC Daugavpils. Across their last 2 meetings BFC Daugavpils have won 1, FS Jelgava 0, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for BFC Daugavpils and 0.8 for FS Jelgava. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: BFC Daugavpils 64%, draw 20%, FS Jelgava 16%.
Safer route: BFC Daugavpils or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.73.
Value angle: BFC Daugavpils to win at 1.75 – 64% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: BFC Daugavpils 2–0 FS Jelgava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
BFC Daugavpils64%fair 1.56 · @1.75
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.50
FS Jelgava16%fair 6.35 · @3.80
2.68Expected goals
1.89BFC Daugavpils xG
0.79FS Jelgava xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.9 – 0.8 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FS Jelgava 16%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 2–0 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
