Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✓77% · @1.10
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓92% · fair 1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗9% · fair 10.89
Riga vs Tukums preview and prediction
The match
Tukums travel to Skonto stadions in the Virsliga on Saturday 18 July (17:00 WAT) to face Riga. Riga are 2nd with 83 points from 35 games (in the top four), while Tukums sit 9th on 25 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 58 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Riga's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Ararat-Armenia 3–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tukums's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Super Nova 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 May 2026, finished Tukums 1–3 Riga. Across their last 2 meetings Riga have won 1, Tukums 0, with 1 draw and 5.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 2.9 for Riga and 0.9 for Tukums. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 74% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Riga 77%, draw 16%, Tukums 8%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Riga 3–0 Tukums. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Riga77%fair 1.30 · @1.10
Draw16%fair 6.40 · @7.75
Tukums8%fair 13.13 · @17.00
3.84Expected goals
2.92Riga xG
0.92Tukums xG
58%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–09%
3–09%
2–18%
3–18%
4–07%
1–06%
From our goals model: Riga 2.9 – 0.9 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Riga vs Tukums?
On our numbers Riga have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Tukums 8%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Tukums?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is Riga 3–0 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Riga vs Tukums?
Riga vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
