BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja preview and prediction
The match
BFC Daugavpils host FK Liepaja in the Virsliga on Saturday 4 July, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadions Celtnieks. BFC Daugavpils are 4th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top four), while FK Liepaja sit 5th on 51 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: LDWDD Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FK Liepaja's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Ogre United 4–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished FK Liepaja 2–1 BFC Daugavpils. Across their last 2 meetings BFC Daugavpils have won 1, FK Liepaja 1, with 0 draws and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for BFC Daugavpils and 1.5 for FK Liepaja. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: BFC Daugavpils 34%, draw 20%, FK Liepaja 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: BFC Daugavpils 1–1 FK Liepaja. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
BFC Daugavpils34%fair 2.93 · @3.10
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.50
FK Liepaja45%fair 2.20 · @2.05
2.72Expected goals
1.24BFC Daugavpils xG
1.48FK Liepaja xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.2 – 1.5 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FK Liepaja 45%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–1 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
