FS Jelgava travel to Skonto stadions in the Virsliga on Friday 3 July (17:00 WAT) to face Riga. Riga are 2nd with 83 points from 35 games (in the top four), while FS Jelgava sit 7th on 35 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 48 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Riga's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Auda 2–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FS Jelgava's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Grobiņa 2–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.5 for Riga and 0.9 for FS Jelgava. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Riga 73%, draw 16%, FS Jelgava 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Riga to win – a 73% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Riga 2–0 FS Jelgava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Riga73%fair 1.37 · @1.22
Draw16%fair 6.40 · @5.40
FS Jelgava11%fair 8.97 · @9.20
3.39Expected goals
2.52Riga xG
0.88FS Jelgava xG
57%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–19%
3–09%
1–08%
3–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Riga 2.5 – 0.9 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✓
73%
1.37
1.22
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
89%
1.13
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.74
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✓
50%
2.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.38
–
Form
Riga – last 6
WDWWWW
29 Jun
@ Auda
2–0
W
25 Jun
@ BFC Daugavpils
0–0
D
21 Jun
vs FK Liepaja
4–0
W
17 Jun
vs Rīgas FS
2–1
W
13 Jun
@ Ogre United
4–1
W
24 May
vs Super Nova
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FS Jelgava – last 6
WWWLDD
29 Jun
vs Grobiņa
2–0
W
25 Jun
@ Super Nova
5–1
W
21 Jun
vs Tukums
4–1
W
17 Jun
vs Ogre United
0–2
L
13 Jun
@ Auda
1–1
D
31 May
vs BFC Daugavpils
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Riga and FS Jelgava.
Our pick is Riga to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Riga vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers Riga have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 16% and FS Jelgava 11%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is Riga 2–0 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Riga vs FS Jelgava?
Riga vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Friday 3 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
