Super Nova travel to face Tukums in the Virsliga on Wednesday 1 July (16:00 WAT). Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Super Nova sit 6th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tukums's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Ogre United 2–3 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Super Nova's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to FS Jelgava 1–5 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Tukums arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.7 points a game against 0.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 May 2026, finished Super Nova 1–1 Tukums. Across their last 2 meetings Tukums have won 0, Super Nova 1, with 1 draw and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Tukums and 1.3 for Super Nova. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 45%, draw 21%, Super Nova 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Tukums 1–1 Super Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums45%fair 2.21 · @2.15
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.35
Super Nova34%fair 2.95 · @3.00
2.91Expected goals
1.58Tukums xG
1.33Super Nova xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.6 – 1.3 Super Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Tukums vs Super Nova?
On our numbers Tukums have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Super Nova 34%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Super Nova?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Super Nova?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 Super Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Super Nova?
Tukums vs Super Nova (Virsliga) kicks off on Wednesday 1 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
