Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceBFC Daugavpils or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.00
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa preview and prediction
The match
BFC Daugavpils host Grobiņa in the Virsliga on Saturday 20 June, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadions Celtnieks. BFC Daugavpils are 4th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Grobiņa sit 8th on 29 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: DDDLW Most recently they drew with Super Nova 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Grobiņa's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat FK Liepaja 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 May 2026, finished Grobiņa 1–1 BFC Daugavpils. Across their last 2 meetings BFC Daugavpils have won 0, Grobiņa 1, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for BFC Daugavpils and 0.7 for Grobiņa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: BFC Daugavpils 63%, draw 23%, Grobiņa 15%.
Safer route: BFC Daugavpils or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.70.
Value angle: BFC Daugavpils to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Grobiņa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
BFC Daugavpils63%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.35
Grobiņa15%fair 6.82 · @3.80
2.53Expected goals
1.80BFC Daugavpils xG
0.73Grobiņa xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.8 – 0.7 Grobiņa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Grobiņa 15%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Grobiņa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 20 June 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
