Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 55% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✓77% · @1.12
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓94% · fair 1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.05
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.83
Riga vs Super Nova preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees Riga take on Super Nova on Sunday 24 May, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Skonto stadions. Riga are 2nd with 83 points from 35 games (in the top four), while Super Nova sit 6th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 43 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Riga's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Tukums 3–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Super Nova's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Grobiņa 2–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 April 2026, finished Super Nova 1–4 Riga.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.7 for Riga and 0.8 for Super Nova. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 68% and both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Riga 77%, draw 18%, Super Nova 6%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 55% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Riga 3–0 Super Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Riga77%fair 1.31 · @1.12
Draw18%fair 5.71 · @6.75
Super Nova6%fair 17.03 · @16.00
3.49Expected goals
2.73Riga xG
0.76Super Nova xG
55%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–08%
3–18%
4–07%
From our goals model: Riga 2.7 – 0.8 Super Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Riga vs Super Nova?
On our numbers Riga have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Super Nova 6%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Super Nova?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Super Nova?
Our predicted score is Riga 3–0 Super Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Riga vs Super Nova?
Riga vs Super Nova (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
