Rīgas FS travel to Stadions Celtnieks in the Virsliga on Wednesday 13 May (16:00 WAT) to face BFC Daugavpils. BFC Daugavpils are 4th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Rīgas FS sit 1st on 89 points (top of the table). A gap of 37 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Riga 1–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Rīgas FS's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat FK Liepaja 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rīgas FS arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.7 for BFC Daugavpils and 2.2 for Rīgas FS. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: BFC Daugavpils 10%, draw 20%, Rīgas FS 70%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.76.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Rīgas FS to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: BFC Daugavpils 0–2 Rīgas FS. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
BFC Daugavpils10%fair 10.18 · @6.25
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @4.10
Rīgas FS70%fair 1.43 · @1.42
2.95Expected goals
0.74BFC Daugavpils xG
2.21Rīgas FS xG
53%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
0–39%
1–29%
1–19%
1–37%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 0.7 – 2.2 Rīgas FS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rīgas FS to win✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Double chance
Rīgas FS or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.76
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.19
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.64
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.40
Half-time result
Rīgas FS ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rīgas FS / FT Rīgas FS✓
47%
2.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.59
–
Form
BFC Daugavpils – last 6
LDLDWW
8 May
vs Riga
1–3
L
2 May
@ Grobiņa
1–1
D
27 Apr
vs Super Nova
0–1
L
21 Apr
@ Tukums
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs FS Jelgava
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Auda
3–2
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Rīgas FS – last 6
WDWWWL
8 May
vs FK Liepaja
5–0
W
28 Apr
vs Riga
3–3
D
22 Apr
@ Grobiņa
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Tukums
2–1
W
8 Apr
@ FS Jelgava
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Auda
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFC Daugavpils and Rīgas FS.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
Our pick is Rīgas FS to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Rīgas FS 70%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 0–2 Rīgas FS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS?
BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS (Virsliga) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
