Tukums host Ogre United in the Virsliga on Thursday 7 May, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Ogre United sit 10th on 19 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Tukums's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat FS Jelgava 5–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Ogre United's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to FS Jelgava 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Tukums arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Ogre United 1–1 Tukums.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.8 for Tukums and 1.1 for Ogre United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 56%, draw 23%, Ogre United 21%.
Safer route: Tukums or draw (79%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Tukums 1–1 Ogre United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums56%fair 1.78 · @1.67
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.65
Ogre United21%fair 4.70 · @4.40
2.92Expected goals
1.82Tukums xG
1.10Ogre United xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.8 – 1.1 Ogre United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tukums vs Ogre United?
On our numbers Tukums have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ogre United 21%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Ogre United?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Ogre United?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 Ogre United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Ogre United?
Tukums vs Ogre United (Virsliga) kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
