Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 2.55 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✗42% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.55
Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils preview and prediction
The match
Grobiņa host BFC Daugavpils in the Virsliga on Saturday 2 May, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT). Grobiņa are 8th with 29 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while BFC Daugavpils sit 4th on 52 points (in the top four). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Grobiņa's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with FK Liepaja 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Super Nova 0–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
BFC Daugavpils arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 7 March 2026, finished BFC Daugavpils 0–1 Grobiņa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Grobiņa and 1.3 for BFC Daugavpils. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Grobiņa 34%, draw 24%, BFC Daugavpils 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: BFC Daugavpils to win at 2.55 – 42% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Grobiņa 1–1 BFC Daugavpils. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Grobiņa34%fair 2.92 · @2.55
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.20
BFC Daugavpils42%fair 2.40 · @2.55
2.38Expected goals
1.12Grobiņa xG
1.27BFC Daugavpils xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Grobiņa 1.1 – 1.3 BFC Daugavpils expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
On our numbers Grobiņa have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and BFC Daugavpils 42%.
How many goals will there be in Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our predicted score is Grobiņa 1–1 BFC Daugavpils, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
