Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: FK Liepaja to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.57
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja preview and prediction
The match
Super Nova host FK Liepaja in the Virsliga on Thursday 23 April, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Slokas Stadions. Super Nova are 6th with 40 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while FK Liepaja sit 5th on 51 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Super Nova's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to Riga 1–4 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
FK Liepaja's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Tukums 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Super Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Super Nova and 1.8 for FK Liepaja. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Super Nova 18%, draw 23%, FK Liepaja 60%.
Safer route: FK Liepaja or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.73.
Value angle: FK Liepaja to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FK Liepaja or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Super Nova 0–1 FK Liepaja. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Super Nova18%fair 5.68 · @3.60
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.50
FK Liepaja60%fair 1.68 · @1.85
2.59Expected goals
0.83Super Nova xG
1.76FK Liepaja xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Super Nova 0.8 – 1.8 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FK Liepaja to win✓
60%
1.68
1.85 ▲
Double chance
FK Liepaja or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
FK Liepaja ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FK Liepaja / FT FK Liepaja✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.57
–
Form
Super Nova – last 6
LWWWDL
14 Apr
vs Riga
1–4
L
9 Apr
@ Grobiņa
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Ogre United
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Tukums
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs FS Jelgava
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Auda
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FK Liepaja – last 6
DLLWLW
17 Apr
@ Tukums
2–2
D
8 Apr
vs Auda
1–2
L
3 Apr
@ BFC Daugavpils
0–2
L
20 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–0
W
13 Mar
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs FS Jelgava
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Super Nova and FK Liepaja.
What is the prediction for Super Nova vs FK Liepaja?
Our pick is FK Liepaja or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Super Nova vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers Super Nova have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FK Liepaja 60%.
How many goals will there be in Super Nova vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is Super Nova 0–1 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Super Nova vs FK Liepaja?
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Slokas Stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
