BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees BFC Daugavpils take on FS Jelgava on Thursday 16 April, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Stadions Celtnieks. BFC Daugavpils are 4th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top four), while FS Jelgava sit 7th on 35 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
BFC Daugavpils's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Auda 3–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
FS Jelgava's last 4: LDWL Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
BFC Daugavpils arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.7 for BFC Daugavpils and 1.3 for FS Jelgava. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: BFC Daugavpils 48%, draw 21%, FS Jelgava 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: BFC Daugavpils 1–1 FS Jelgava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
BFC Daugavpils48%fair 2.09 · @2.20
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.40
FS Jelgava31%fair 3.19 · @2.85
3.01Expected goals
1.70BFC Daugavpils xG
1.32FS Jelgava xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.7 – 1.3 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
BFC Daugavpils to win✓
48%
2.09
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.50
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BFC Daugavpils / FT BFC Daugavpils✗
28%
3.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.74
–
Form
BFC Daugavpils – last 5
WWWLL
12 Apr
@ Auda
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Ogre United
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
2–0
W
7 Mar
vs Grobiņa
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Suduva Marijampole
3–5
L
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
FS Jelgava – last 4
LDWL
8 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Super Nova
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Tukums
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ FK Liepaja
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFC Daugavpils and FS Jelgava.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FS Jelgava 31%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–1 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
