Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✓67% · @1.28
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓87% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.77
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.60
Super Nova vs Riga preview and prediction
The match
The Virsliga sees Super Nova take on Riga on Tuesday 14 April, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Slokas Stadions. Super Nova are 6th with 40 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Riga sit 2nd on 83 points (in the top four). A gap of 43 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Super Nova's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Grobiņa 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Riga's last 4: DWWW Most recently they drew with Tukums 3–3 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.1 for Super Nova and 2.5 for Riga. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Super Nova 13%, draw 20%, Riga 67%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Super Nova 1–2 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Super Nova13%fair 7.75 · @8.20
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @5.20
Riga67%fair 1.48 · @1.28
3.55Expected goals
1.06Super Nova xG
2.49Riga xG
59%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
0–29%
1–38%
1–18%
0–37%
0–17%
From our goals model: Super Nova 1.1 – 2.5 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✓
67%
1.48
1.28
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.65
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✓
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.60
–
Form
Super Nova – last 6
WWWDLL
9 Apr
@ Grobiņa
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Ogre United
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Tukums
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs FS Jelgava
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Auda
1–2
L
28 Feb
@ Paide
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Riga – last 4
DWWW
9 Apr
vs Tukums
3–3
D
20 Mar
@ Auda
2–1
W
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Auda
4–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Super Nova and Riga.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Super Nova vs Riga?
On our numbers Super Nova have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Riga 67%.
How many goals will there be in Super Nova vs Riga?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Super Nova 1–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Super Nova vs Riga?
Super Nova vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Slokas Stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
