Value bet: FK Liepaja to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Liepaja to win58% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.47
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava preview and prediction
The match
FS Jelgava travel to Daugavas stadions in the Virsliga on Sunday 12 April (14:00 WAT) to face FK Liepaja. FK Liepaja are 5th with 51 points from 36 games (in the top half), while FS Jelgava sit 7th on 35 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FK Liepaja's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Auda 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
FS Jelgava's last 4: LDWL Most recently they lost to Rīgas FS 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished FK Liepaja 2–1 FS Jelgava.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for FK Liepaja and 1.0 for FS Jelgava. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FK Liepaja 58%, draw 19%, FS Jelgava 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.57.
Value angle: FK Liepaja to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: FK Liepaja 1–1 FS Jelgava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FK Liepaja58%fair 1.72 · @1.95
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @3.55
FS Jelgava23%fair 4.35 · @3.25
2.68Expected goals
1.73FK Liepaja xG
0.95FS Jelgava xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: FK Liepaja 1.7 – 1.0 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers FK Liepaja have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 19% and FS Jelgava 23%.
How many goals will there be in FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is FK Liepaja 1–1 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava?
FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Daugavas stadions.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
