Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win71% · @1.33
Double chanceRiga or draw93% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–213% · fair 7.53
FS Jelgava vs Riga preview and prediction
The match
FS Jelgava host Riga in the Virsliga on Saturday 4 April, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs. FS Jelgava are 7th with 35 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Riga sit 2nd on 83 points (in the top four). A gap of 48 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FS Jelgava's last 3: DWL Most recently they drew with Super Nova 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Riga's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Auda 2–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.7 for FS Jelgava and 2.3 for Riga. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FS Jelgava 7%, draw 22%, Riga 71%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: FS Jelgava 0–2 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FS Jelgava7%fair 14.02 · @8.60
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @4.40
Riga71%fair 1.41 · @1.33
2.98Expected goals
0.69FS Jelgava xG
2.28Riga xG
56%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: FS Jelgava 0.7 – 2.3 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win
71%
1.41
1.33
Double chance
Riga or draw
93%
1.08
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.79
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
65%
1.55
1.45
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2
13%
7.53
–
Form
FS Jelgava – last 3
DWL
15 Mar
@ Super Nova
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Tukums
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ FK Liepaja
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Riga – last 3
WWW
20 Mar
@ Auda
2–1
W
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Auda
4–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FS Jelgava and Riga.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FS Jelgava vs Riga?
On our numbers FS Jelgava have a 7% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Riga 71%.
How many goals will there be in FS Jelgava vs Riga?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FS Jelgava vs Riga?
Our predicted score is FS Jelgava 0–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is FS Jelgava vs Riga?
FS Jelgava vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
