Super Nova travel to face Tukums in the Virsliga on Sunday 22 March (13:00 WAT). Tukums are 9th with 25 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Super Nova sit 6th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Super Nova's last 4: DLLD Most recently they drew with FS Jelgava 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Tukums and 1.2 for Super Nova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums 44%, draw 21%, Super Nova 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Tukums 1–1 Super Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums44%fair 2.29 · @2.20
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.35
Super Nova36%fair 2.81 · @2.88
2.62Expected goals
1.40Tukums xG
1.23Super Nova xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.4 – 1.2 Super Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tukums to win✗
44%
2.29
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tukums / FT Tukums✗
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.85
–
Form
Tukums – last 2
DL
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ FS Jelgava
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Super Nova – last 4
DLLD
15 Mar
vs FS Jelgava
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Auda
1–2
L
28 Feb
@ Paide
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Kalju Nomme
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums and Super Nova.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tukums vs Super Nova?
On our numbers Tukums have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Super Nova 36%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Super Nova?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Super Nova?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 Super Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Super Nova?
Tukums vs Super Nova (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
