The Liga 3 sees União Santarém take on Mafra on Wednesday 4 March, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Campo Cha das Padeiras. União Santarém are 4th with 13 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Mafra sit 5th on 12 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mafra's last 3: DLW Most recently they drew with Trofense 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for União Santarém and 1.4 for Mafra. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.80, so there is value in it. Predicted score: União Santarém 1–1 Mafra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
União Santarém32%fair 3.08 · @3.00
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @2.75
Mafra40%fair 2.51 · @2.38
2.76Expected goals
1.36União Santarém xG
1.41Mafra xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: União Santarém 1.4 – 1.4 Mafra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mafra to win✗
40%
2.51
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mafra / FT Mafra✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.27
–
Form
União Santarém – last 1
L
21 Feb
vs Guimaraes B
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Mafra – last 3
DLW
27 Feb
@ Trofense
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Amarante
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Varzim
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between União Santarém and Mafra.
What is the prediction for União Santarém vs Mafra?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win União Santarém vs Mafra?
On our numbers União Santarém have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Mafra 40%.
How many goals will there be in União Santarém vs Mafra?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União Santarém vs Mafra?
Our predicted score is União Santarém 1–1 Mafra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is União Santarém vs Mafra?
União Santarém vs Mafra (Liga 3) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Cha das Padeiras.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
