Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Nzoia Sugar to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.53
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNzoia Sugar to win66% · @1.53
Double chanceNzoia Sugar or draw87% · @1.07
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–019% · fair 5.17
Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United preview and prediction
The match
Mwatate United travel to face Nzoia Sugar in the Super League on Saturday 21 March (13:00 WAT).
Form guide
Nzoia Sugar's last 4: WDWL Most recently they beat Kisumu All Stars 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mwatate United's last 3: WLD Most recently they beat Gucha Stars 3–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Nzoia Sugar and 0.5 for Mwatate United. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nzoia Sugar 66%, draw 22%, Mwatate United 13%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nzoia Sugar to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Nzoia Sugar 1–0 Mwatate United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nzoia Sugar66%fair 1.52 · @1.53
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.25
Mwatate United13%fair 7.88 · @6.50
2.12Expected goals
1.61Nzoia Sugar xG
0.51Mwatate United xG
40%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–016%
0–012%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Nzoia Sugar 1.6 – 0.5 Mwatate United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nzoia Sugar to win
66%
1.52
1.53
Double chance
Nzoia Sugar or draw
87%
1.15
1.07
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nzoia Sugar / FT Nzoia Sugar
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
19%
5.17
–
Form
Nzoia Sugar – last 4
WDWL
8 Mar
@ Kisumu All Stars
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Nairobi City Stars
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Vihiga United FC
4–0
W
15 Feb
vs Gucha Stars
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Mwatate United – last 3
WLD
28 Feb
vs Gucha Stars
3–1
W
22 Feb
@ Kabati Youth FC
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Darajani Gogo
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nzoia Sugar and Mwatate United.
What is the prediction for Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?
Our pick is Nzoia Sugar to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?
On our numbers Nzoia Sugar have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mwatate United 13%.
How many goals will there be in Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?
Our predicted score is Nzoia Sugar 1–0 Mwatate United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United?
Nzoia Sugar vs Mwatate United (Super League) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Darajani Gogo1
3K1
Vihiga United FC2