Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.40Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 2.95 – our chance 58% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +72%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗58% · @2.95
Double chanceLithuania or draw ✓80% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.50
Moldova vs Lithuania preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies sees Moldova take on Lithuania on Thursday 26 March, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Stadionul Zimbru.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Moldova and 1.1 for Lithuania. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Moldova 20%, draw 58%, Lithuania 22%.
Safer route: Lithuania or draw (80%) at 1.40.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Draw at 2.95 – 58% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lithuania or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.24, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Moldova 1–1 Lithuania. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Moldova20%fair 5.10 · @2.75
Draw58%fair 1.71 · @2.95
Lithuania22%fair 4.53 · @2.50
2.24Expected goals
1.10Moldova xG
1.15Lithuania xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Moldova 1.1 – 1.1 Lithuania expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
58%
1.71
2.95 ▲
Double chance
Lithuania or draw✓
80%
1.24
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lithuania / FT Lithuania✓
21%
4.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.50
–
Form
Moldova
No recent results on record.
Lithuania
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moldova and Lithuania.
Our pick is Lithuania or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Moldova vs Lithuania?
On our numbers Moldova have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 58% and Lithuania 22%.
How many goals will there be in Moldova vs Lithuania?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moldova vs Lithuania?
Our predicted score is Moldova 1–1 Lithuania, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Moldova vs Lithuania?
Moldova vs Lithuania (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadionul Zimbru.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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