Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: USA W to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUSA W to win ✓65% · @1.85
Double chanceUSA W or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.85
USA W vs Japan W preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies Women sees USA W take on Japan W on Saturday 18 April, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT).
Form guide
USA W's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Japan W 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Japan W's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat USA W 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 4.7 goals a game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Japan W arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 April 2026, finished USA W 0–1 Japan W.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for USA W and 0.9 for Japan W. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 54% and both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: USA W 65%, draw 21%, Japan W 14%.
Safer route: USA W or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Value angle: USA W to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was USA W or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: USA W 2–0 Japan W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USA W65%fair 1.54 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.45
Japan W14%fair 6.95 · @3.65
2.96Expected goals
2.09USA W xG
0.87Japan W xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: USA W 2.1 – 0.9 Japan W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is USA W or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win USA W vs Japan W?
On our numbers USA W have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Japan W 14%.
How many goals will there be in USA W vs Japan W?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA W vs Japan W?
Our predicted score is USA W 2–0 Japan W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is USA W vs Japan W?
USA W vs Japan W (Friendlies Women) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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