Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.77 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUSA W to win ✗62% · @1.70
Double chanceUSA W or draw ✗86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
USA W vs Japan W preview and prediction
The match
USA W host Japan W in the Friendlies Women on Wednesday 15 April, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Lumen Field.
Form guide
Japan W's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Australia W 1–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 4.8 goals a game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.4 for USA W and 1.1 for Japan W. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: USA W 62%, draw 25%, Japan W 14%.
Safer route: USA W or draw (86%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: USA W 2–1 Japan W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USA W62%fair 1.62 · @1.70
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.60
Japan W14%fair 7.36 · @4.33
3.51Expected goals
2.38USA W xG
1.13Japan W xG
59%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–08%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: USA W 2.4 – 1.1 Japan W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
USA W to win✗
62%
1.62
1.70 ▲
Double chance
USA W or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.77 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.36
Half-time result
USA W ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT USA W / FT USA W✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Form
USA W – last 2
WW
5 Mar
vs Canada W
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Argentina W
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Japan W – last 6
WWWWWW
21 Mar
vs Australia W
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ South Korea W
4–1
W
15 Mar
vs Philippines W
7–0
W
10 Mar
vs Vietnam W
4–0
W
7 Mar
@ India W
11–0
W
4 Mar
vs Chinese Taipei W
2–0
W
4.8Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA W and Japan W.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win USA W vs Japan W?
On our numbers USA W have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Japan W 14%.
How many goals will there be in USA W vs Japan W?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA W vs Japan W?
Our predicted score is USA W 2–1 Japan W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is USA W vs Japan W?
USA W vs Japan W (Friendlies Women) kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Lumen Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
