Value bet: Figueirense to win @ 1.90 – our chance 56% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFigueirense to win ✗56% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.52
Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias preview and prediction
The match
Marcílio Dias travel to face Figueirense in the Catarinense 1 on Saturday 21 February (00:00 WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.5 for Figueirense and 0.8 for Marcílio Dias. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Figueirense 56%, draw 22%, Marcílio Dias 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Figueirense to win at 1.90 – 56% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.23. Predicted score: Figueirense 1–0 Marcílio Dias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Figueirense56%fair 1.78 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.20
Marcílio Dias22%fair 4.53 · @3.50
2.27Expected goals
1.49Figueirense xG
0.78Marcílio Dias xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Figueirense 1.5 – 0.8 Marcílio Dias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Figueirense to win✗
56%
1.78
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.23
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Figueirense / FT Figueirense✗
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.52
–
Form
Figueirense
No recent results on record.
Marcílio Dias
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Figueirense and Marcílio Dias.
What is the prediction for Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias?
On our numbers Figueirense have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Marcílio Dias 22%.
How many goals will there be in Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias?
Our predicted score is Figueirense 1–0 Marcílio Dias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias?
Figueirense vs Marcílio Dias (Catarinense 1) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Catarinense 1 · Brazil
Barra
Camboriú