Value bet: Joinville to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultJoinville to win ✓57% · @1.91
Double chanceJoinville or draw ✓79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.99
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux preview and prediction
The match
Carlos Renaux travel to Arena Joinville in the Catarinense 1 on Saturday 14 February (01:00 WAT) to face Joinville.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Joinville and 0.8 for Carlos Renaux. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Joinville 57%, draw 22%, Carlos Renaux 21%.
Safer route: Joinville or draw (79%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Joinville to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Joinville 1–0 Carlos Renaux. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Joinville57%fair 1.75 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.10
Carlos Renaux21%fair 4.85 · @3.90
2.41Expected goals
1.59Joinville xG
0.82Carlos Renaux xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Joinville 1.6 – 0.8 Carlos Renaux expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Joinville to win✓
57%
1.75
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Joinville or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Joinville / FT Joinville✓
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.99
–
Form
Joinville
No recent results on record.
Carlos Renaux
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Joinville and Carlos Renaux.
What is the prediction for Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
On our numbers Joinville have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Carlos Renaux 21%.
How many goals will there be in Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
Our predicted score is Joinville 1–0 Carlos Renaux, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux (Catarinense 1) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Joinville.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Catarinense 1 · Brazil · Arena Joinville
Brusque
Chapecoense-sc