Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Paide to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPaide to win ✓65% · @1.80
Double chancePaide or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.98
Kuressaare vs Paide preview and prediction
The match
Paide travel to Kuressaare Linnastaadion in the Meistriliiga on Saturday 24 October (12:30 WAT) to face Kuressaare. Kuressaare are 9th with 37 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Paide sit 2nd on 64 points (in the top four). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Kuressaare's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 0–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Paide's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Trans Narva 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 August 2026, finished Paide 1–0 Kuressaare. Across their last 3 meetings Kuressaare have won 0, Paide 2, with 1 draw and 1.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Kuressaare and 2.0 for Paide. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kuressaare 15%, draw 20%, Paide 65%.
Safer route: Paide or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Paide to win at 1.80 – 65% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paide or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Kuressaare 0–1 Paide. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kuressaare15%fair 6.75 · @3.70
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.50
Paide65%fair 1.53 · @1.80
2.75Expected goals
0.79Kuressaare xG
1.96Paide xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–06%
From our goals model: Kuressaare 0.8 – 2.0 Paide expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Paide or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Kuressaare vs Paide?
On our numbers Kuressaare have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Paide 65%.
How many goals will there be in Kuressaare vs Paide?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kuressaare vs Paide?
Our predicted score is Kuressaare 0–1 Paide, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Kuressaare vs Paide?
Kuressaare vs Paide (Meistriliiga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Kuressaare Linnastaadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
