Value bet: Paide to win @ 2.75 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPaide to win ✓39% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓9% · fair 11.15
Paide vs Kalju Nomme preview and prediction
The match
The Meistriliiga sees Paide take on Kalju Nomme on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Paide linnastaadion. Paide are 2nd with 64 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Kalju Nomme sit 4th on 61 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Paide's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Tammeka 4–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kalju Nomme's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with FC Levadia Tallinn 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 February 2026, finished Paide 2–1 Kalju Nomme.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Paide and 1.3 for Kalju Nomme. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paide 39%, draw 24%, Kalju Nomme 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Paide to win at 2.75 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Paide 1–1 Kalju Nomme. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paide39%fair 2.54 · @2.75
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Kalju Nomme37%fair 2.72 · @2.30
2.75Expected goals
1.40Paide xG
1.35Kalju Nomme xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–06%
From our goals model: Paide 1.4 – 1.3 Kalju Nomme expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Paide vs Kalju Nomme?
On our numbers Paide have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Kalju Nomme 37%.
How many goals will there be in Paide vs Kalju Nomme?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paide vs Kalju Nomme?
Our predicted score is Paide 1–1 Kalju Nomme, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Paide vs Kalju Nomme?
Paide vs Kalju Nomme (Meistriliiga) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Paide linnastaadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
