The Meistriliiga sees Paide take on Nõmme United on Wednesday 8 April, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Paide linnastaadion. Paide are 2nd with 64 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Nõmme United sit 8th on 38 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Paide's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Kuressaare 1–0 away. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nõmme United's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with FC Levadia Tallinn 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Paide arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.6 for Paide and 1.0 for Nõmme United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paide 69%, draw 21%, Nõmme United 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paide to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Paide 2–1 Nõmme United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paide69%fair 1.45 · @1.40
Draw21%fair 4.65 · @4.33
Nõmme United10%fair 10.44 · @5.80
3.63Expected goals
2.62Paide xG
1.01Nõmme United xG
60%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Paide 2.6 – 1.0 Nõmme United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paide to win✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Double chance
Paide or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Paide ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paide / FT Paide✓
49%
2.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.87
–
Form
Paide – last 6
WWWLWW
3 Apr
@ Kuressaare
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Trans Narva
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Tallinna Kalev
6–0
W
7 Mar
@ Vaprus
2–3
L
28 Feb
vs Super Nova
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Kalju Nomme
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nõmme United – last 5
DLWLL
4 Apr
@ FC Levadia Tallinn
1–1
D
21 Mar
vs Tammeka
2–3
L
14 Mar
vs Vaprus
7–1
W
10 Mar
@ Flora Tallinn
1–3
L
7 Mar
@ Flora Tallinn
0–3
L
2.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paide and Nõmme United.
Our pick is Paide to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Paide vs Nõmme United?
On our numbers Paide have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nõmme United 10%.
How many goals will there be in Paide vs Nõmme United?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paide vs Nõmme United?
Our predicted score is Paide 2–1 Nõmme United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Paide vs Nõmme United?
Paide vs Nõmme United (Meistriliiga) kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Paide linnastaadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
