Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Paide to win @ 1.75 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPaide to win ✓66% · @1.75
Double chancePaide or draw ✓88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.52
Paide vs Trans Narva preview and prediction
The match
Paide host Trans Narva in the Meistriliiga on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 11:30 (WAT) at Paide linnastaadion. Paide are 2nd with 64 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Trans Narva sit 10th on 23 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 41 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Paide's last 4: WLWW Most recently they beat Tallinna Kalev 6–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Trans Narva's last 3: WDW Most recently they beat Viimsi 4–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.5 for Paide and 1.1 for Trans Narva. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paide 66%, draw 22%, Trans Narva 12%.
Safer route: Paide or draw (88%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Paide to win at 1.75 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Paide 2–1 Trans Narva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paide66%fair 1.52 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.64 · @3.50
Trans Narva12%fair 8.02 · @3.90
3.51Expected goals
2.45Paide xG
1.06Trans Narva xG
63%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
3–18%
1–18%
3–07%
1–07%
From our goals model: Paide 2.5 – 1.1 Trans Narva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paide to win✓
66%
1.52
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Paide or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.21
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.50
Half-time result
Paide ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paide / FT Paide✗
45%
2.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.52
–
Form
Paide – last 4
WLWW
11 Mar
vs Tallinna Kalev
6–0
W
7 Mar
@ Vaprus
2–3
L
28 Feb
vs Super Nova
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Kalju Nomme
2–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Trans Narva – last 3
WDW
11 Mar
vs Viimsi
4–3
W
21 Feb
@ Kuressaare
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Vaprus
2–0
W
2.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paide and Trans Narva.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Paide vs Trans Narva?
On our numbers Paide have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Trans Narva 12%.
How many goals will there be in Paide vs Trans Narva?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paide vs Trans Narva?
Our predicted score is Paide 2–1 Trans Narva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Paide vs Trans Narva?
Paide vs Trans Narva (Meistriliiga) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Paide linnastaadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
