Value bet: USM Alger to win @ 2.80 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUSM Alger to win ✗39% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.76
ASO Chlef vs USM Alger preview and prediction
The match
USM Alger travel to Mohamed Boumezrag Stadium in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 5 April (17:45 WAT) to face ASO Chlef. ASO Chlef are 15th with 5 points from 9 games (in the bottom three), while USM Alger sit 6th on 14 points (in the top half).
Form guide
ASO Chlef's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to CR Belouizdad 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
USM Alger's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to MC Alger 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
ASO Chlef arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for ASO Chlef and 1.0 for USM Alger. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: USM Alger to win at 2.80 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: ASO Chlef 0–0 USM Alger. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ASO Chlef35%fair 2.84 · @2.62
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @2.80
USM Alger39%fair 2.59 · @2.80
1.89Expected goals
0.91ASO Chlef xG
0.98USM Alger xG
49%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–015%
0–115%
1–014%
1–113%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: ASO Chlef 0.9 – 1.0 USM Alger expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
USM Alger to win✗
39%
2.59
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.94
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.76
–
Form
ASO Chlef – last 5
LWWLW
18 Mar
@ CR Belouizdad
1–2
L
13 Mar
vs Mostaganem
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs ES Setif
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs CS Constantine
0–2
L
13 Feb
@ El Bayadh
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
USM Alger – last 6
LLWLWD
1 Apr
@ MC Alger
0–1
L
25 Mar
vs JS Kabylie
0–1
L
18 Mar
vs ES Setif
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Maniema Union
1–2
L
4 Mar
vs JS Saoura
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ El Bayadh
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ASO Chlef and USM Alger.
What is the prediction for ASO Chlef vs USM Alger?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win ASO Chlef vs USM Alger?
On our numbers ASO Chlef have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and USM Alger 39%.
How many goals will there be in ASO Chlef vs USM Alger?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ASO Chlef vs USM Alger?
Our predicted score is ASO Chlef 0–0 USM Alger, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is ASO Chlef vs USM Alger?
ASO Chlef vs USM Alger (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Mohamed Boumezrag Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paradou AC0
Mostaganem0
El Bayadh1