Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: The Town to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultThe Town to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceThe Town or draw ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.40
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.11
The Town vs Tacoma Defiance preview and prediction
The match
The Town host Tacoma Defiance in the MLS Next Pro on Sunday 6 September, with kick-off at 03:30 (WAT) at PayPal Park. The Town are 8th with 42 points from 28 games (in the top half), while Tacoma Defiance sit 9th on 41 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
The Town's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Los Angeles FC II 3–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Tacoma Defiance's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Real Monarchs 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Tacoma Defiance arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 July 2026, finished The Town 0–1 Tacoma Defiance.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.3 for The Town and 1.0 for Tacoma Defiance. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: The Town 65%, draw 21%, Tacoma Defiance 14%.
Safer route: The Town or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.40.
Value angle: The Town to win at 1.73 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was The Town or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: The Town 2–0 Tacoma Defiance. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
The Town65%fair 1.53 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.60
Tacoma Defiance14%fair 7.15 · @3.75
3.27Expected goals
2.28The Town xG
0.99Tacoma Defiance xG
63%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: The Town 2.3 – 1.0 Tacoma Defiance expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
Our pick is The Town or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
On our numbers The Town have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tacoma Defiance 14%.
How many goals will there be in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
Our predicted score is The Town 2–0 Tacoma Defiance, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
The Town vs Tacoma Defiance (MLS Next Pro) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 03:30 (West Africa Time) at PayPal Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Minnesota United II2
Colorado Rapids II0
Sporting KC II1
St. Louis City II2