North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance prediction & analysis
59%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNorth Texas to win ✓41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.66
North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance preview and prediction
The match
North Texas host Tacoma Defiance in the MLS Next Pro on Sunday 9 August, with kick-off at 01:45 (WAT) at Choctaw Stadium. North Texas are 10th with 40 points from 28 games (in the top half), while Tacoma Defiance sit 9th on 41 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
North Texas's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Ventura County 1–6 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Tacoma Defiance's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 4–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Tacoma Defiance arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.6 for North Texas and 1.5 for Tacoma Defiance. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: North Texas 41%, draw 21%, Tacoma Defiance 38%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: North Texas 1–1 Tacoma Defiance. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
North Texas41%fair 2.43 · @2.20
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.60
Tacoma Defiance38%fair 2.67 · @2.60
3.18Expected goals
1.63North Texas xG
1.55Tacoma Defiance xG
53%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: North Texas 1.6 – 1.5 Tacoma Defiance expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
North Texas to win✓
41%
2.43
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.55
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT North Texas / FT North Texas✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.66
–
Form
North Texas – last 6
LDWLWD
1 Aug
@ Ventura County
1–6
L
26 Jul
vs Los Angeles FC II
2–2
D
19 Jul
@ The Town
1–0
W
12 Jul
@ Colorado Rapids II
0–1
L
5 Jul
vs St. Louis City II
3–0
W
11 Jun
@ Vancouver Whitecaps II
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tacoma Defiance – last 6
WWWWLD
2 Aug
vs Vancouver Whitecaps II
4–2
W
27 Jul
vs Colorado Rapids II
2–1
W
20 Jul
@ Real Monarchs
4–2
W
13 Jul
@ The Town
1–0
W
6 Jul
vs Portland Timbers II
0–2
L
29 Jun
@ Minnesota United II
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between North Texas and Tacoma Defiance.
What is the prediction for North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance?
On our numbers North Texas have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tacoma Defiance 38%.
How many goals will there be in North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance?
Our predicted score is North Texas 1–1 Tacoma Defiance, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance?
North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance (MLS Next Pro) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 01:45 (West Africa Time) at Choctaw Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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